Trade what the market got wrong.

SignalVector runs five independent signal sources across Kalshi and Polymarket to find mispriced contracts. Every trade is Kelly-sized, passes ten risk checks, and exits on rules, not impulse.

0

Signal sources

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Risk checks per order

0

Automated exit triggers

The problem

YOU KNOW THE EDGE EXISTS.
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Your current setup

  • ×Flat bet size on every contract
  • ×No systematic mispricing scan
  • ×Gut-feel entries, no edge threshold
  • ×Manual price checks between meetings
  • ×No position sizing framework
  • ×Hold until expiry or panic sell
  • ×No cross-venue price comparison
  • ×Portfolio risk unchecked

The engine

Five signals. One composite score.

Each source runs independently. SignalVector only surfaces contracts where the weighted composite exceeds 0.62 and at least three sources agree on direction.

28%

AI Analysis

LLM reads contract language, resolution criteria, and recent news. Outputs directional probability vs market price. Weighted highest when narrative and price diverge sharply.

22%

Price Momentum

Tracks short-horizon price velocity and mean reversion signals on the contract tape. Flags contracts moving against implied fair value.

18%

Volume Spikes

Detects abnormal volume relative to 7-day baseline on the same market. Often precedes informed flow before the price fully adjusts.

17%

Market Efficiency

Measures bid-ask spread, depth at top of book, and slippage on a standard clip size. Penalizes illiquid contracts where edge cannot be captured.

15%

Time Decay

Models theta on contracts approaching resolution. Favors entries with favorable time-to-event profiles. Reduces exposure as uncertainty collapses near expiry.

Composite threshold: 0.62 minimum · 3-source agreement required · rescanned every 30 minutes

Risk management

Ten checks before every order.

01Kelly cap

Position size capped at half-Kelly to limit ruin risk.

02Single-market limit

No more than 8% of bankroll in one contract.

03Category concentration

Max 25% exposure to any event category.

04Daily loss halt

Trading pauses after 5% drawdown in a session.

05Minimum edge

Orders blocked below 4% expected value vs price.

06Liquidity floor

Requires $2,000+ depth within 2 cents of mid.

07Correlation guard

Blocks stacking highly correlated positions.

08Resolution window

No new entries inside 6 hours of known resolution.

09Open position count

Hard cap of 12 concurrent positions.

10Venue balance check

Verifies funded balance before every order.

Position sizing

Size bets like a desk, not a gambler.

Kelly criterion sizes each position from your edge and the market price. SignalVector uses half-Kelly by default so a string of losses does not wipe the bankroll. You set bankroll once; every order scales from it.

Sample trade · Kelly calculator

Bankroll$10,000
Your probability58%
Market price51¢
Edge+7.0%
Full Kelly14.2%
Half-Kelly stake$710

Cross-market

Same contract. Different price.

Kalshi and Polymarket often quote the same event at different cents. SignalVector flags divergences above 3 cents with sufficient liquidity on both venues to execute.

ContractKalshiPolymarketSpread
Fed rate cut by Jun 202642¢38¢+4.0¢
BTC above $100k Dec 202561¢57¢+4.0¢
US recession 202519¢23¢+4.0¢

Exit management

Know when to get out.

Positions are scanned every 5 minutes. Any trigger fires an automatic exit. You are not required to watch the tape.

Take profit

Closes at +18% unrealized or when edge compresses below 2%.

Stop loss

Hard exit at -12% or when composite score flips negative.

Time exit

Forces close 24h before resolution if still open.

Signal reversal

Exits when two or more signal sources flip direction.

Edge evaporation

Closes when fair value converges to market within 1%.

Pricing

Flat fee. Your edge is yours.

Free

$0

  • +Daily mispricing digest
  • +Top 3 picks by composite score
  • +Kalshi + Polymarket coverage
  • +Email alerts only
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Pro

$29/mo

  • +Full trading dashboard
  • +All signal scores and weights
  • +Kelly sizing recommendations
  • +10 risk checks on every order
  • +5 exit triggers, auto-managed
  • +Position sync with Kalshi
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Syndicate

Custom

  • +Multi-seat team access
  • +Custom risk parameters
  • +API access and webhooks
  • +Dedicated onboarding
  • +SLA and priority support
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Early access

Beta slots are limited. The scan is not.

Join the waitlist for dashboard access. Pro subscribers get priority when auto-execution opens.

Beta access is rolling. No payment required to join the waitlist.